Xiantan shares (002746)： Demand growth extends the market prices and prices go up to boost performance
Xiantan shares (002746): Demand growth extends the market prices and prices go up to boost performance
Summary of the report1, the growth of production capacity has led to performance takeoff.
The “company + base” development model under the “Nine Unifications” is the potential basis for the company to control risks, and the expansion of production capacity is a performance that plugs into wings.
In terms of breeding volume, the company can increase the breeding volume to more than 200 million birds in 2 years through a cage breeding project transformation and integration agreement, and the output has increased by more than 50%.
The company gradually increased investment in the downstream deep processing sector, which was included in the production of raised food processing projects, which is expected to significantly increase the company’s product gross margin and performance stability.
2. In the short term, prices of chicken and frozen products are expected to accelerate in eight months, and the company’s performance is expected to exceed expectations.
In June, the prices of chicken fry and hairy chickens dropped sharply. The downstream chicken meat benefited from the stability of demand, and the price fell slightly.
We expect that the price of chicken seedlings will reach or even exceed 10 yuan / bill again in August. The price of chickens is expected to approach 6 yuan / kg, and the price of frozen products will exceed 14,000 yuan / ton.
3. Benefit from long-term demand growth.
White feather broilers continue to expand the consumer market by virtue of their own advantages. If the swine production caused by African swine fever is reduced by 30%?
40%, the meat supply gap is 1200?
2000 inches, if half to white feather broiler, add 600 to white feather broiler?
Demand in 1,000 target markets, the company will take the lead to benefit from the expansion of demand.
Profit forecast The company’s production capacity growth has injected strong momentum into the performance. The alternative demand brought by African swine fever will affect the sector for a long time. The doubling of market space and high performance will provide the company with as much support as 南宁桑拿 possible.
It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019/2020/2021 will be 8 respectively.
0.9 billion, corresponding to EPS of 1.
39, giving 15 times PE in 2020 with a target price of 32.
70 yuan to 17 per day on July 29.
40 yuan as the benchmark, 87 upside.
93% with a BUY rating.
Risk Tips 1. Feed material supply and price risks. Increasing raw material prices may adversely affect the company’s cost control; 2. Listing of non-pespicious vaccines: Effective listing of non-pessial vaccines can fundamentally eliminate the spread of non-epidemic diseases and generate dechemicalization progressWill be affected, and alternative demand growth may be less than expected.
3. Epidemic risk: If there is an epidemic such as bird flu in the company’s farm, the 杭州桑拿网 company’s profit may be less than expected.