Hesheng Silicon Industry (603260): Performance is slightly higher than expected.

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04/06/2020 0 Comment

Hesheng Silicon Industry (603260): Performance is slightly higher than expected.

Net profit for the third quarter of 2019 is reported to the mother 8.

610,000 yuan, at least -61.

66%, slightly lower than expected.

In the third quarter of 2019, it reported operating income of 65.

4 ‰, at least -22.

48%, net profit attributable to mother 8.

610,000 yuan, at least -61.

66%, the performance is mainly due to metal silicon, the price of organic silicon has been shortened a bit, the average three-quarter metal silicon excluding tax rate of 10152 yuan / ton, to -10.

98%, the average price of silicone ring silane is 19,313 yuan / ton, up to -31.

79%, meanwhile, due to the gradual improvement of Xinjiang’s silica mining in the second and third quarters, the production and sales of metallic silicon have improved.

Net cash flow from operating activities was 8.

8.3 billion, with good cash flow.

  The supply problem of silica is gradually solved, and the utilization rate of new production capacity of Shanshan Metal Silicon and Organic Silicon will gradually increase.

Restrictions on the supply of silica in the second and third quarters led to an increase in the company’s metal silicon production. After the problem of silica supply was gradually resolved at the end of the third quarter, it is expected that the operating rate of metal silicon will gradually increase.

Shanshan’s annual production of 10 inserted anchor chains and downstream deep processing investment projects were put into operation at the end of the third quarter of 2019.

Shihezi has an annual output of 20 anchor chain projects and is expected to be put into production in 2021.

After the completion of the expansion project, the company will have a capacity of 90 tons of metal silicon (including 10 tons of Jinsong Silicon) and 93 tons of organic silicon monomer.

  In 2019-2021, the supply and demand of metal silicon will gradually meet the tight pattern. The continued sluggish demand for exports and aluminum alloys will cause the price of metal silicon to continue to decline in 2019. The large-scale reduction of the industry will stimulate large-scale production reductions of metal silicon, and in the long run, strict indicators for future production expansionRestrictions, while the demand side is turning into photovoltaic demand, the growth of metal silicon demand will gradually be repaired in the future, and the improvement of the supply and demand relationship will promote the price of metal silicon to continue to rise from September. The average price of metal silicon 441 is expected to be 11,400 yuan in 2019-2021./ Ton, 12500 yuan / ton, 12500 yuan / ton.

Although there is a slight surplus in the supply and demand of the silicone industry, the price is still in the historical bottom area. At the same time, the supply company is easy to generate a coordinated future. The price of the silicone is difficult to continue to fall below the cost line. It is expected that the price of the silicone D4 will be 1.
.

8-2.

30,000 / ton.

  Due to low sales volume and rising costs, we lower our profit forecast and maintain our BUY rating.

We adjusted the company’s metal silicon sales to 54 in 2019-2021.

5 for the first time, 71.

8 Bulletin, 83.

4 Forecast (The original forecast was 56 for 2019-2021.

9, 71.

8 Bulletin, 83.

(April), adjusted the sales of organic silicon products for 2019-2021 to 21 respectively.

7 early, 30.

1 initial, 41.

7 initially (previously predicted to be 23 in 2019-2021).

7 early, 30.

1 initial, 41.

7 benchmark), the product price is expected to be the average sales price of metal silicon 都市夜网 series products in 2019-2021 will be 11,250 yuan / ton, 12,350 yuan / ton, 12350 yuan / ton, the average price of ring silicone is expected to be 2019-2021 respectively21,000 yuan / ton, 19,000 yuan / ton, 19,000 yuan / ton, due to lowered metal silicon and organic silicon sales assumptions in 2019 and a slight increase in the cost of silica, so we lower the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 to 11.

900 million, 23.

4.7 billion, 32.
9.1 billion (the original forecast was 16.
55 billion, 24.

14 billion, 35.

3.2 billion), corresponding PE is 22 times, 11 times, 8 times respectively. Although the profit forecast has been lowered, the company has always been at the bottom. It is expected that the rebound in metal silicon prices will drive the company’s profits to gradually improve.Give 15 times the target PE and 35% target space. Maintain BUY rating.

  Risk warning: PV demand exceeds expectations; Xinjiang has introduced self-provided cross-substitution.