Jiantou Energy (000600)： Improve productivity and reduce company performance, expect lower coal prices to release performance elasticity
Jiantou Energy (000600): Improve productivity and reduce company performance, expect lower coal prices to release performance elasticity
The largest thermal power company in Hebei Province, the only listed platform within the group. Hebei Power Supply and Demand is the largest independent power generation company in Hebei Province. The controlling shareholder is Jiantou Group, a state-owned capital investment and operation group owned by Hebei Province.Listing platform.
Since the supply-side reform, Hebei ‘s installed capacity growth measures have been taken, but at the same time, Hebei ‘s economic development has been shifted, and the province ‘s entire society ‘s electricity consumption has maintained a certain growth rate.
In 2018, the province’s power consumption was 366.6 billion kilowatt-hours, ranking 5th, and the installed capacity was 74.27 million kilowatts, ranking 11th in the country. Thermal power installed capacity was 46.17 million kilowatts, ranking 10th in all provinces in the country, and the province usedThe electricity situation is severe; external purchase of electricity is needed to meet the needs of the grid during peak power periods, but it still takes priority over the province’s power generation.
Since 2017, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment for coal-fired power plants of 6000 kW and above in Hebei Province have been maintained at more than 5,000 hours, compared with 5,090 hours in 2018, which is equivalent to an increase of 34 hours in 2017.
The reduction of the improvement rate will improve the company’s performance. It is expected that the reduction in coal prices will release the performance elasticity. The heating capacity will continue to improve the power business: (1) the injection of group assets and the commissioning of new units, and the company’s installed capacity will gradually increase.
At the end of 2018, the company had 10 holding power generation companies, which controlled operating installed capacity of 7.8 million kilowatts and equity operating installed capacity of 8.32 million kilowatts.
A recent company announcement stated that it will issue an additional 45% equity interest in Zhanghewan and 40% equity interest in Qinre.
(2) The supply-side reform is beneficial to the concentration of power generation assets in the province, and the utilization hours of high-quality units have been improved.
In 2018, the company’s online power was 383.
7.1 billion kWh, an increase of 15 in ten years.
74%; utilization hours were 5,234 hours, which was higher than 873 hours nationwide.
(3) Located in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, coal prices have obvious regional advantages and have elastic resistance.
The company’s coal procurement is mainly in Shanxi, Shenhua, and Hebei.
The 杭州龙凤网 company’s Changxie coal accounts for about 50%. Train coal is the main coal supply channel in the coal transportation structure, and automotive coal is an important supplement.
After the second half of 2018, thermal coal prices have loosened. In January and February, due to factors such as mining disasters, short-term coal prices rose month-on-month.We expect 2019 thermal coal price rankings to decline in 2018, and the company’s operating conditions will improve significantly.
(4) The tight electricity supply leads to a small electricity discount space in the provincial market, and a reduction in the reduction rate will improve the company’s performance.
From 2017 to 2018, the company’s transaction power accounted for about 23% of the total on-grid power. At present, Hebei Province has a large scale of power consumption, so the market electricity discount is relatively small and it will increase significantly in the short term.
In terms of heating business: The company has continuously improved its heating capacity.
Expansion of the scale, the existing heating power generation scale of heating units continues to expand, the implementation of internal optimization and integration of thermal business, while actively expanding downstream markets.
We believe that the heating business will bring new performance increase to the company, and gradually, using heat to determine the power will help protect the company’s power unit utilization hours.
Profit forecast: Estimated revenue for 2019-2021 is 162.
7.8 billion, net profit attributable to mother is 9.
43 trillion, corresponding to 0 EPS.
69 yuan / share.
The relative estimation method was used to evaluate the company: In the past year, the lowest PB of Huaneng International, a leading company in listed thermal power companies, was 1.
12X, the highest PB is 1.
60X, we give the company 1 in 2019.
3X PB, target expected 8.
35 yuan, give “overweight” rating.
Risk Warning: Thermal coal prices change at a high level, the macro economy is down, and market electricity is greatly expanded.